Gianluca Orefice (University of Paris-Dauphine - PSL)
Abstract: We study how trade liberalization permanently affects working conditions beyond wages. Using EU enlargement as a natural experiment, we construct region-specific exposure to exogenous tariff changes at the sector level and link them to 4.3 million workers across Eastern Europe. Export liberalization causes a permanent increase in temporary employment and nonstandard work schedules, not merely cyclical adjustment. Workers in high-exposure regions are 6.7 percentage points more likely to hold temporary contracts than those in low-exposure regions, with effects persisting for more than a decade after integration. We develop a model in which trade strengthens exposure to foreign shocks, raising steady-state demand volatility at the sector level within regions. This permanently shifts labor demand toward more flexible forms of employment, even in the long run when all adjustment is complete. Import liberalization reduces wages but has limited effects on employment composition. Our findings show that trade alters not only wages and employment levels but also the long-run structure of jobs, with lasting consequences for job quality.
You can find Gianluca's website here: Orefice Gianluca
He will be available for individual meetings on the day of the seminar. Giulia and Yihan will coordinate the schedule. Please use the following Google sheet if you want to reserve a slot: Research Seminar SoSe 26